“The cash crunch, petrol scarcity … are issues that are likely going to be top of mind for those who make it to the polls and arguably could sway the votes,” Famoroti says.Nigeria reissues old banknote as cash fiasco threatens to disrupt election
Fuel shortages and scarcity of the newly redesigned local currency have stirred violent protests in parts of Nigeria as millions of people struggle to get their hands on new versions of bank notes.
Nigerians expect the eventual winner of the presidential poll to hit the ground running in finding solutions to those problems, including tackling the country’s burgeoning debt profile, oil theft, and a controversial petrol subsidy that deprives the country of major oil revenue.
The top three candidates have made promises to tackle some of these issues. The ruling party’s Tinubu vows to create jobs, grow the economy, and “obliterate terror, kidnapping, banditry, and violent crime from the face of our nation.”
Touting a “recover Nigeria” mantra, the PDP’s Abubakar says he wants to “block government wastages” by first running a small government, weaning the country off the petrol subsidy, and making it “the hub of crude oil refining in Africa.”
The Labour Party’s Obi says his government will be keen to shift Nigeria’s focus “from consumption to production” while also being determined “to fight and significantly reduce corruption” and create systems to reduce unemployment, insecurity, and inflation.
Who is tipped to win?
A predictive poll by Stears puts Obi ahead of the two main challengers in a large voter turnout scenario. A lesser turnout will favor Tinubu, according to the Stears’ poll.
“There was a scenario where we only considered voters who had picked up their PVC based on that scenario, the Labour Party candidate is the most likely winner,” Famoroti told CNN.
“However, we then also estimated a low turnout scenario. The idea is that these are the harder than hardcore voters and those that most likely will turn up to vote on the day. Under that scenario, the APC candidate emerges victorious,” he added.
Another poll by Lagos-based SBM Intelligence does not foresee a frontrunner but suggests that Obi and Abubakar could garner a sufficient number of ballots to meet the 25% vote spread in 24 of Nigeria’s 36 states required by law to win.
The forecast is different for the Political Africa Initiative (POLAF) whose survey polled three million people and predicts a close race between the opposition PDP (38%) and the ruling APC (29%). Obi’s Labour Party is projected to occupy third place with 27% of the votes.
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